Thursday, July 28, 2011

You Are Indeed Too Overconfident

The article is old, but I believe that we can still learn from it. Face it: You cannot beat the market. If you do, I'm sure the conclusion is very retrospective. Turn things around. Look at it introspectively. Sure your "over"-performance wasn't a sign of true alpha rather than just excessive risk taking, and thus a risk premium.

People on Main Street should consider their investment as being very static. That is, you buy and hold - and as the Oracle of Omaha would put it: "Your favorite period of holding time is forever".

You are saving up for your retirement and whatever bequest motives you might have.

As I'm writing this it suddenly hits me: Investing is pretty similar to training. I've trained with a lot of different guys, and honestly, the so-called "routine-shoppers" that never stuck to a program for more than two weeks never really obtained any solid gains. Whether it was a running or at strength training program. Similar to changing your portfolio - every time you switch program there is a transaction-cost.

The article's abstract ends with the following sentence: "Our central message is that trading is hazardous to your wealth."

Well, that sounds a bit harsh. I think day-trading is hazardous to your wealth.

There are a few things I want to add. Suddenly, I'm reminded of something NNT wrote in his book The Black Swan.

To be continue...

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